In May 2025, the World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) forecast that international visitor spending in the United States would fall to just under $169 billion in 2025, down from $181 billion in 2024 — a drop of $12.5 billion, or around 7%. This article describes that forecast. It is not a report of final 2025 results, and the numbers below are the forecast figures WTTC published on May 13, 2025, based on its Economic Impact Research with Oxford Economics.
The forecast stood out for one reason: the United States was the only country among the 184 economies analysed by WTTC and Oxford Economics expected to see international visitor spending decline in 2025. The projected $169 billion was also 22.5% below the pre-pandemic peak of $217.4 billion in 2019, according to WTTC — meaning that even before the forecast year ended, U.S. international visitor spending was still far from its previous high.
The early arrivals data cited by WTTC pointed the same way. U.S. Department of Commerce figures for March 2025 showed sharp year-over-year drops from several of the country's largest source markets, including the United Kingdom, Germany, and South Korea, and Canadian summer bookings were down 20% on the previous year.
The scale is what makes the forecast matter for travelers as well as for the industry. The United States is the world's largest travel and tourism economy — worth $2.6 trillion in 2024, supporting more than 20 million jobs and generating over $585 billion in tax revenue, according to WTTC figures. This is what the forecast said, which markets were behind it, and what WTTC said was driving it.
Information checked: October 28, 2026.
What Did WTTC Forecast?
WTTC announced its Economic Impact Research on May 13, 2025, in London. The headline finding: international visitor spending in the United States was projected to fall to just under $169 billion in 2025, down from $181 billion in 2024 — a decline of $12.5 billion, or around 7% year over year.
That shortfall represented a 22.5% decline from the previous peak of $217.4 billion in 2019, the last full year before the pandemic. In other words, the forecast did not just predict a bad year; it predicted a year still running more than a fifth below the best year on record.
The United States was the only one of the 184 economies analysed by WTTC and Oxford Economics forecast to see international visitor spending fall in 2025. Every other economy in the analysis was expected to grow or hold steady. WTTC's president and chief executive, Julia Simpson, called the finding "a wake-up call for the U.S. government."
The forecast also projected that overall growth in the U.S. travel and tourism sector would slow to just 0.7% in 2025, as the drop in international spending dragged on an industry otherwise supported by strong domestic travel.
How Big Is the U.S. Travel Economy?
The United States is the world's largest travel and tourism economy, and by a wide margin. The sector contributed $2.6 trillion to U.S. GDP in 2024, according to WTTC figures reported alongside the forecast — more than any other country's travel economy, with China second at $1.64 trillion.
Travel and tourism accounts for around 9% of the American economy when direct and indirect effects are counted, supports more than 20 million jobs, and generates over $585 billion in tax revenue a year — about 7% of all government tax income, according to WTTC data cited in coverage of the forecast.
That scale is why a $12.5 billion decline in one segment matters beyond hotels and airlines. WTTC said the loss would be "a direct blow to the U.S. economy overall, impacting communities, jobs, and businesses from coast to coast."
The domestic market is the reason the overall sector kept growing at all. WTTC noted that the United States has the world's strongest domestic travel market, which continued to support jobs and revenue even as international spending fell — but domestic demand alone was not enough to offset the international decline.
Which Markets Were Falling?
The arrivals data WTTC cited came from the U.S. Department of Commerce and covered March 2025, compared with the same month a year earlier. The drops were widespread across the country's largest source markets:
United Kingdom: arrivals down nearly 15% year over year.
Germany: arrivals down more than 28%.
South Korea: arrivals down almost 15%.
Spain, Colombia, Ireland, Ecuador, and the Dominican Republic: arrivals down between 24% and 33%.
Canada: summer bookings down 20% compared with the previous year.
WTTC's Simpson said that the "near neighbors, Canada and Mexico, are not traveling" at the same rate, and pointed to declines from those markets in particular.
These were early-year figures, published alongside a forecast for the full year — not a final tally for 2025. They showed the direction of travel in the first months of the year, and WTTC used them as evidence that the forecast decline was already under way. Final 2025 arrival and spending figures may differ from the forecast.
Why Did WTTC Say This Was Happening?
WTTC attributed the projected decline to traveller confidence — not to a lack of demand for travel in general, but to a loss of confidence in visiting the United States specifically. All of the causes below are WTTC's attribution, not independent findings.
The Council pointed to worries about visas: travelers unsure whether they held the right visa, or worried about being detained on arrival. Simpson said some travelers had become "quite fearful" about whether they might be arrested accidentally, and that concerns over visas were keeping people away.
It also pointed to tariffs and to reports of visitors being detained, which Simpson said had damaged sentiment toward visiting the United States. And it pointed to the strong U.S. dollar, which made the country more expensive to visit for international travelers — a factor that had already kept U.S. international spending below 2019 levels in 2024, according to WTTC.
The combination, in WTTC's telling, was a perception problem as much as an economic one: while other countries were "rolling out the welcome mat," in Simpson's words, the United States felt as if it were "putting up the 'closed' sign." That characterization is WTTC's, and other analysts have pointed to additional factors, including affordability and capacity constraints across the global travel market.
What Did WTTC Say Should Happen Next?
WTTC's message was that the decline was fixable, but only with action. Simpson said the United States was "heading in the wrong direction, not because of a lack of demand, but because of a failure to act," and warned that without urgent action to restore international traveller confidence, "it could take several years for the U.S. just to return to pre-pandemic levels of international visitor spend."
The Council's recommendations, as reported alongside the forecast, were destination promotion, traveller-friendly policies, and reduced visa costs. Without those, WTTC warned, the United States "could lose its competitive edge" — even while remaining the world's largest travel and tourism economy.
The warning was framed as a choice rather than a prediction of permanent decline. The United States kept its No. 1 position in WTTC's ranking of travel economies in 2025, and the forecast did not suggest the country would lose that position — only that the gap would narrow if international spending kept falling while other markets grew.
Whether the forecast proved accurate, and whether the recovery WTTC called for followed, depends on figures published after the forecast. This article reports the forecast as WTTC published it in May 2025.
What Does This Mean for Your U.S. Trip?
For travelers, the forecast is background, not a reason to change plans on its own. The United States remains the world's largest travel economy, and its major destinations — New York, Los Angeles, Las Vegas, Orlando, and the national parks — continue to receive millions of international visitors a year. A forecast about national spending totals does not describe any single trip.
What the forecast does underline is that entry conditions and traveler sentiment matter, and that both can change. Before you book a U.S. trip, run through this checklist:
Check the current U.S. entry rules for your nationality — visa, ESTA, or another authorization — on an official government source, not a third-party site.
Confirm your booking and travel documents with your airline before you fly.
Allow extra time at the border, and carry proof of your return or onward travel and accommodation.
If you are traveling from Canada, Mexico, the United Kingdom, Germany, or South Korea, note that these were among the markets WTTC cited as declining — demand patterns and flight availability can shift accordingly.
Treat forecasts as forecasts: the figures in this article are WTTC's May 2025 projections for 2025, and final results may differ.
The United States is still the world's biggest travel destination by spending. The forecast was a warning that its lead was narrowing — and a reminder to check the rules before you book, not at the airport.
Official Sources
WTTC — U.S Economy Set To Lose $12.5BN In International Traveler Spend this year
https://wttc.org/news/us-economy-set-to-lose-12-5bn-in-international-traveler-spend-this-year
The New York Times / Juneau Empire — As foreign tourists stay away, US could lose $12.5 billion this year, tourism group says
Skift — U.S. Could Lose $12.5 Billion in International Visitor Spending This Year
CAPA — WTTC: US remains most powerful travel and tourism market, but 'could lose its competitive edge'
This article describes a forecast published by WTTC on May 13, 2025, about calendar-year 2025; final 2025 figures may differ from the forecast. Entry rules, fees, and travel conditions can change — confirm the current rules on official government sources before you travel.